The Strait of Hormuz is burning, and Scott Morrison wants us to grab a bucket of gasoline.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Australian American Leadership Dialogue (AALD) in Washington, the former prime minister urged Canberra to proactively deploy military assets to the Persian Gulf. His argument is a familiar play from an old playbook. He claims Australia must protect commercial shipping, secure global energy corridors, and stand alongside our most critical security ally.
But let's be honest. Injecting Australian warships into the highly volatile waters of the Middle East right now isn't just unnecessary; it's a strategic trap.
We've been down this road before. The current crisis in the Gulf isn't a localized maritime dispute. It's an active, rapidly expanding conflict. Following the collapse of the fragile June ceasefire, US forces have launched intensive daylight bombing campaigns targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites on Greater Tunb Island, and facilities deeper inland near Tehran. In retaliation, Iran has fired drone and missile barrages at US allies across the region, triggering air raid sirens in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Demanding that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) jump headfirst into this tinderbox ignores our actual defense priorities and risks dragging us into an open-ended regional war.
The Illusion of Free Passage
The main argument for sending Australian frigates or maritime patrol aircraft is the defense of global shipping. It's a noble-sounding principle. Under international law, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital international waterway. Roughly 20% of global petroleum passes through this tight choke point.
But Morrison's push overlooks the geopolitical reality of the current blockade. This isn't 2019, when Australia sent a frigate and a P-8A Poseidon to join a maritime security coalition. Today, the US has unilaterally reimposed a strict naval blockade, even disabling civilian tankers bound for Iranian oil terminals.
If Australia deploys combat assets to the Gulf now, we aren't just protecting merchant ships from random attacks. We're actively backing a highly aggressive, unilateral US naval blockade.
What Sending Assets Really Means
- Entanglement in a Two-Way War: Iran's Revolutionary Guard has made it clear: "Regional energy exports are either shared by all or denied to all." By joining the fray, Australian ships become legitimate targets for Iran's sophisticated anti-ship cruise missiles and swarming drone fleets.
- Stretching Our Own Resources: The Royal Australian Navy is already facing severe capability constraints. With growing tensions in our immediate Indo-Pacific neighborhood, sending our limited surface fleet to the other side of the world leaves our own region exposed.
- A Failed Diplomatic Signal: In March, the Albanese government sent an E-7A Wedgetail to the UAE to assist with regional defense. But jumping from defensive surveillance to active maritime interdiction in the middle of a hot war is a massive, dangerous escalation.
The Indo-Pacific is Where Australia's Future is Decided
Every warship, surveillance aircraft, and sailor we send to the Persian Gulf is an asset we can't deploy in our primary theater of interest.
The defense of Australia relies on maintaining a stable, rules-based order in the South China Sea and the wider Indo-Pacific. Our primary strategic risk lies in our immediate north. While the US has the luxury of projecting power globally across multiple theaters, Australia simply doesn't have the strategic depth to play deputy sheriff in the Middle East while trying to deter major-power conflict closer to home.
The regional security landscape has shifted permanently. If we don't prioritize our own backyard, nobody else will.
Moving Beyond Knee-Jerk Coalition Building
Instead of automatically agreeing to Washington's high-risk campaigns, Australian foreign policy needs to find its backbone. Protecting our economic interests doesn't require military adventurism.
If we want to secure our energy needs and stabilize international trade, here are the immediate, practical steps Canberra should take instead of sending warships:
- Accelerate Fuel Security Initiatives: Australia remains highly vulnerable to supply chain shocks because of our lack of domestic fuel reserves. We must invest heavily in sovereign refining capacity and domestic storage rather than relying on the vulnerable transit of crude through Middle Eastern choke points.
- Support Regional Mediation: We should back diplomatic channels led by regional players like Pakistan and Oman, who are actively trying to salvage the ruined June peace framework.
- Prioritize Regional Deterrence: Keep the Royal Australian Navy focused entirely on domestic maritime border security and joint exercises within the Quad and ASEAN frameworks.
We can't afford to let yesterday's leaders dictate tomorrow's strategic blunders. Keeping our military assets out of the Gulf is the only rational move for Australia's national interest.
